I was trying to explain scenario planning to someone unfamiliar with the concept when it hit me – it’s like a Choose Your Own Adventure book. While the stakes are higher and you’re not likely to be chased by mummies, the principle is the same. You have the option to imagine and explore possible futures, then select the one that best serves you.
To receive the full benefits of scenario planning, certain key conditions have to be met. Otherwise, your sales and operation planning decisions are made upon sub-optimal data, which is not helpful or desirable.
The good news is that it’s possible to change, right now. If you want to optimize your sales and operation planning, here’s some advice to get you started:
1. Look for flexibility and ease
The point of scenario planning is to free our thinking. If it takes too long, then people just won’t bother. Some tools are good at modeling existing data but if there’s a sudden shift in circumstances, making quick changes to that data isn’t possible.
The right tool for you will be both flexible and easy to use. You’ll be able to make multiple changes rapidly rather than entering data points one at a time.
2. Have a reasonable scope for your scenarios
A common mistake is to merge an organization’s long-term strategic plan with its monthly sales and operational planning. All that does is complicate scenario planning while not adding value. You’ll get far better results if you have several focused scenarios with an appropriate level of detail. That way, you’ll receive more options as well a higher level of accuracy.
3. Flag your leading scenario
Once you have selected the best scenario, you need to make sure everyone knows what it is. Yes, it sounds obvious, but I have seen people implement the wrong scenario, thinking that they’re working on the right one. It does nothing but waste time and resources.
Your planning tool needs to be accessible and allow people to immediately identify with which scenario they’ll be working. Progress will be far smoother and you’ll save time and money. And you won’t have to constantly bother people and check that they’re all working on the same scenario.
What I liked best about the Choose Your Own Adventure books was that you immediately discovered the impact of your actions and whether you met your goal. If you didn’t, you could always go back a few pages and make a different choice. Optimizing your sales and operation planning is the same thing – exploring your different choices until you find one that meets your goal. And what is running a successful business but one of the most exciting adventures of all?
Interested to learn more? Get more tips for optimizing your sales and operations planning.
